Why I checked the raw transactions myself
An industry study can be useful, but when a conclusion starts sounding too clean, it is worth checking the underlying transaction records. That was the reason I pulled the unit-by-unit new-sale and resale data for three Executive Condominiums launched in different eras: Bishan Loft, Waterwoods, and Hundred Palms Residences.
The headline in the study was simple: EC buyers have made strong profits, resale buyers can sometimes outperform, and location may matter less than people assume. The broad direction is interesting. But the real value for buyers is not in repeating a catchy takeaway — it is in understanding what the numbers actually say, what they do not say, and how much confidence we should place in each comparison.
I also checked the current public resale context for the three projects. EdgeProp’s latest project pages show Bishan Loft averaging about S$1,672 psf, Waterwoods about S$1,497 psf, and Hundred Palms Residences about S$1,889 psf based on recent transaction windows. That does not replace the raw launch-to-resale comparison, but it helps anchor the discussion in today’s market.
The verified numbers
Here is the transaction summary I used for the article.
| Project | Launched | Launch Avg PSF | Today’s Resale Avg PSF | Total Growth | Annualised (CAGR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishan Loft | 2001 | $425 | $1,680 | +296% | ~5.7%/year |
| Waterwoods | 2014 | $801 | $1,458 | +82% | ~5.3%/year |
| Hundred Palms Residences | 2017 | $844 | $1,919 | +127% | ~9.7%/year |
These figures are averages across matching new-sale and resale transactions pulled for each project. PSF means price per square foot.
At first glance, the pattern is clear. All three projects appreciated. None of them went sideways over the long term. And the magnitude of the gains is meaningful enough that even the weakest performer in the set still delivered a substantial uplift for patient owners.
Lesson 1: Holding an EC long-term has paid off in every era
The first and most obvious takeaway is that time has been the biggest friend of EC owners.
Bishan Loft is the oldest of the three, and it tells the longest story. Buyers who entered in 2001 and held through multiple market cycles saw their value per square foot rise from the low hundreds to well above S$1,600 psf. That is not a short-term trade. It is the result of patience, maturity of the estate, and the market re-rating a formerly subsidised product into a fully established resale asset.
Waterwoods shows the same principle, but in a more moderate form. A 5.3% annualised gain may not sound dramatic when compared with a high-growth startup story, but in property terms it is still strong, especially over a multi-year holding period. It also reminds buyers that not every EC needs to become a record breaker to remain a successful purchase. If the unit is bought at the right price and held long enough, steady compounding can still create a very large absolute gain.
The key point is this: ECs are not magic, but they have historically rewarded ownership over time. The subsidy effect at launch helps, but the gains are only locked in through years of supply absorption, household formation, and the gradual widening of demand once the project enters the resale market.
Lesson 2: The most recent launch actually compounded the fastest
The biggest surprise in the set is Hundred Palms Residences.
Launched in 2017 in Yio Chu Kang, it posted the strongest annualised growth of the three projects at roughly 9.7% a year. That is especially notable because it was not a classic “blue-chip MRT doorstep” launch. In other words, it did not rely on the one factor many buyers instinctively overrate: immediate rail access.
This is where the study’s broader claim starts to make sense. Location matters, but it is rarely the only thing that matters. In Hundred Palms’ case, launch pricing, unit mix, household demand, and the surrounding supply pipeline likely played a very large role. A project can outperform even if it is not walking distance to the station, provided it meets the market at the right price point and offers a product that families actually want to buy.
That is an important lesson for EC buyers because EC demand tends to be family-led. Many buyers are less concerned with prestige-location optics and more concerned with whether the project offers a livable layout, workable quantum, and enough room to grow into. If a development solves those problems well, the market can reward it even when the location is not the most obvious selling point.
Hundred Palms also helps explain why simplistic location arguments can be misleading. A far-from-MRT EC is not automatically a weak performer. Likewise, an EC close to transport is not automatically a winner. What buyers are really pricing is the full package: entry cost, unit size, household usability, and how the next wave of buyers will compare it against the alternatives available at that time.
Lesson 3: Be careful with “resale buyers beat new-sale buyers” claims
This is the area where many property headlines become too neat for their own good.
A catchy claim like “resale buyers out-earned new-sale buyers” can be true in one narrow sense and misleading in another. It all depends on what comparison is being made. Are we comparing original buyers against later resale buyers over the same full holding period? Are we comparing a new buyer who sold early against a later buyer who bought after a dip? Are we using the resale price at one point in time, or the final exit price?
Waterwoods is a good example of why this matters. In the data I pulled, Waterwoods actually shows the lowest annualised growth of the three projects, which does not support a simple “resale buyers beat everyone” reading. That does not mean the broader claim is necessarily wrong. It may simply be based on a narrower timing window that includes an intermediate resale dip, where a later buyer happened to enter at a better point in the cycle.
But that is exactly why I am cautious about repeating such headlines as fact. Without the midpoint transaction in the comparison, it is easy to draw the wrong conclusion.
For clients, the practical lesson is straightforward: always ask what is being compared. If someone says one buyer type outperformed another, find out whether the analysis is using launch price, resale entry, intermediate sale price, or final exit price. The answer can change the conclusion completely.
What these numbers mean for today’s EC buyers
If you are deciding between a new launch EC and a resale EC, the data suggests a few useful habits.
1. Do not assume the newest launch always wins
Hundred Palms shows that a well-priced project with a less flashy location can still become a standout performer.
2. Do not overpay for the story
The launch price matters. A great project bought too expensively can still underperform a merely decent project bought well.
3. Think in holding periods, not headlines
All three ECs in this sample rewarded time. The compounding effect is much more visible when you look across decades rather than months.
4. Treat viral comparisons as a starting point, not a conclusion
Data stories can be useful, but they often compress several assumptions into one simple chart. That is fine for a headline. It is not fine for a purchase decision.
The policy change matters too
There is one more reason this historical data should be read carefully.
On 8 May 2026, the Ministry of National Development announced that new ECs with tender closing dates on or after that date will face a 10-year Minimum Occupation Period instead of the previous five years. During that period, owners cannot rent out the whole unit, buy another residential property, or sell to Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents. Only after 15 years can they sell to any buyer.
That is a major structural change. It means the historical EC playbook may not work in exactly the same way for future launches. Past gains still matter as a guide, but they should not be treated as a promise that the next batch of ECs will behave the same way.
Final takeaway
What the transaction records really show is not that ECs are guaranteed profit machines, but that long-term ownership in the right EC has historically been rewarded — sometimes handsomely.
The data also shows that the market is more nuanced than a simple “location equals performance” story. Bishan Loft, Waterwoods, and Hundred Palms Residences each proved that different eras, different entry prices, and different buyer pools can produce very different outcomes.
So if you are evaluating an EC today, the right question is not whether ECs are always good investments. The better question is: at today’s price, in today’s policy environment, and for your own holding period, does this specific project still make sense?
That is the question the raw transaction data helps answer.
